The trade war between the European Union and the United States is heating up.
Donald Trump’s decision to slap the bloc with a 20% across-the-board tariff has upended deeply intertwined commercial bonds between the two sides of the Atlantic, threatening to dismantle reliable supply chains, hike production costs, fuel inflation, wreck profitable businesses and wipe off untold value in imports and exports.
The tariffs, which Washington has described as “reciprocal” but which Brussels has called “neither credible nor justified”, are seen as a forceful attempt to unilaterally redesign the multilateral economic order established after World War II – the same order that the EU has consistently defended and promoted through numerous trade deals.
With billions at risk of obliteration, the EU is doubling down on the need to find a negotiated solution, while keeping its cards close to its chest in case of retaliation.
These are the main characters in the trade war.
Ursula von der Leyen: the one at the top
Ursula von der Leyen has firmly positioned herself on the frontline of the trade war.
The reason is self-evident: the European Commission she leads has exclusive competence to determine the commercial policy of the 27-country bloc, giving her a vast margin of manoeuvre to decide how to react to Trump’s disruptive tariffs. A staunch defender of transatlantic ties, von der Leyen has already made an offer to bring down the heat: a “zero-for-zero” deal to remove all tariffs on industrial goods.
“Europe is always ready for a good deal. So we keep it on the table,” the Commission president said on Monday. “But we are also prepared to respond through countermeasures and defend our interests.”
Should the tit-for-tat escalate, it will ultimately be up to von der Leyen to decide which areas of the American economy will be hit and which will be spared. She will also have the final say on whether or not to trigger the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), which the Commission has never used since its introduction in 2023.
Von der Leyen faces a significant daunting challenge, however: communication channels. She has not spoken with Trump since a congratulatory call after his electoral victory.
Maroš Šefčovič: the all-smiles envoy
Little did Maroš Šefčovič know after his unexpected appointment as European Commissioner for Trade that he would soon be navigating an all-out trade war.
The 58-year-old Slovak, known in Brussels for his flashy smile and colourful ties, has the powerful – albeit, in this case, unenviable – task of managing the bloc’s trade relations, making him the go-to person after President von der Leyen herself.
Šefčovič has travelled twice to Washington DC and held several phone calls with his American counterparts (more about them later) in a bid to get a better understanding of what the Trump administration’s endgame might actually be. So far, he has come back completely empty-handed, an ominous sign for the negotiations ahead.
“Let’s be clear: engaging the US will take both time and effort,” Šefčovič cautioned after a meeting of trade ministers in Luxembourg.
“The US views tariffs not as a tactical step but as a corrective measure. We are fully prepared to sit at the negotiation table whenever our American partners are ready.”
Beneath the smile Šefčovič brings considerable negotiating experience to the table following his role as the key point man for the EU executive in its labyrinthine wrangling with the UK over Brexit.
Bjoern Seibert: the shadow operator
Only those deep into the EU bubble know the name of Bjoern Seibert.
The soft-spoken, bespectacled chef de cabinet of Ursula von der Leyen has often been referred to as an éminence grise, a power broker who wields an oversized influence quietly in the shadows. Seibert proved instrumental in reinforcing EU-US ties by developing close contacts with key people in the Joe Biden administration.
But that invaluable network evaporated overnight when Trump and his team took over the White House, forcing Seibert to start from scratch. Von der Leyen’s aide-de-camp joined Šefčovič on his latest Washington trip, a sign of how deeply involved he is in the process. Before that, he travelled to the American capital on his own to meet members of Trump’s National Security Council and the National Economic Council.
The German is in regular touch with ambassadors in Brussels to ensure member states are duly informed and, crucially, on board with the Commission’s initiatives. He is supported by Tomas Baert, von der Leyen’s trade advisor.
Sabine Weyand: the consummate insider
While von der Leyen, Šefčovič and Seibert operate at the highest political level, there are hundreds of well-versed, battle-tested experts in Brussels working on trade at a technical level, patiently going through the nitty gritty to find American imports that can be slapped with counter-tariffs. Among these, Sabine Weyand stands out from the crowd.
A long-serving Commission official, Weyand leads the mighty Directorate General for Trade (DG Trade) and has a panoramic, privileged view of all commercial decisions involving goods, services, intellectual property and foreign investments. Under von der Leyen’s command, DG Trade has expanded its arsenal of trade defence measures, making the department more reactive and assertive.
Weyand’s credentials will come in handy for the trade war: she was the EU’s deputy chief negotiator for Brexit and spearheaded the conclusion of several free-trade deals, including the EU-Mercosur agreement, which brings together 780 million consumers.
EU leaders: the perpetually divided
The European Commission might have exclusive competence over trade but that does not necessarily mean it can go solo, close its eyes and hope for the best.
With the stakes reaching the stratosphere, von der Leyen will have to secure the buy-in from member states to ensure a united, coherent front against the White House. After all, the tariffs are expected to be highly damaging to national economies, so speaking directly with EU leaders is indispensable to understanding and managing the tit-for-tat.
But leaders, in classic fashion, are divided on how to proceed. Some, like French President Emmanuel Macron, want to go all-out and deploy the most hard-hitting options. Others, like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, advocate a measured approach to focus on negotiations rather than immediate retaliation. Behind the scenes, leaders are lobbying von der Leyen to spare sensitive and lucrative sectors.
How the debate plays out will determine what happens next: the Commission’s countermeasures can be blocked with a qualified majority of member states.
Donald Trump: the disrupter-in-chief
The image of Donald Trump revealing his self-styled “reciprocal tariffs” on a large chart has quickly become iconic – or controversial, depending on where you’re from.
Tariffs were a rallying cry during Trump’s anything-goes campaign and are now a central element of his second presidency, which in less than three months has proven extremely disruptive for virtually every corner of international relations.
The president has repeatedly evoked the prosperity of America’s Gilded Age to justify the imposition of the punishing duties, portraying his unprecedented initiative as the only possible way to rebalance the country’s trade deficits. Not even the loud complaints from investors, many of whom backed his re-election, have weakened his resolve.
According to the White House, the tariffs will remain in place until the president concludes “the threat posed by the trade deficit and underlying nonreciprocal treatment is satisfied, resolved or mitigated.” The condition leaves it entirely to Trump’s discretion to decide, case by case, the longevity of the measures.
Von der Leyen has her work cut out for her: Trump has attacked the EU as a “monopoly” that was formed as a “unified force” against America. He has already rejected her offer for a “zero-for-zero” tariff deal, calling instead on the bloc to increase purchases of American energy and make the trade deficit disappear “in one week”.
“The EU has been very tough over the years. It was – I always say it was formed to really do damage to the United States in trade,” Trump said. “It’s not going to be that way. It’s got to be fair and reciprocal. It’s gotta be fair. It’s not fair.”
JD Vance: the angry cheerleader
For Europe, JD Vance has become a synonym for angry speeches.
Since taking office, the US Vice President has ferociously denounced the EU for its digital regulations, migration policy, defence spending and supposed lack of free speech. His clash with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office caused consternation and triggered an outpouring of solidarity from EU leaders towards the Ukrainian president.
Most recently, Vance has taken a cheerleading role to defend Trump’s tariffs against its numerous critics. In an interview with Fox News, the Vice President admitted the duties were a “big change” and their purported benefits would take time to arrive. “What I’d ask folks to appreciate here is that we’re not going to fix things overnight,” he said.
With Vance taking a hands-on role in the White House’s decision-making – Trump has tasked him with securing a new buyer for TikTok – the EU might have no choice but to deal directly with the man that has publicly berated the bloc.
Interestingly, as CNN reports, Vance used to oppose trade protectionism.
Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer: the counterparts
Who do you call when you want to call the United States?
If the call is on trade, the most obvious answer would be Howard Lutnick, the US Secretary of Commerce, and Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative. These are the two people that Maroš Šefčovič has been talking to in recent weeks, trying, without success, to find a workable compromise.
While Greer keeps a low profile, Lutnick seeks the spotlight.
The Commerce Secretary, a billionaire and former CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, is a regular presence on news shows, where he delivers provocative lines in a Trumpian fashion. He shares an ideological approach to tariffs similar to that of the president, going as far as saying they would be “worth it” even if they led to a recession.
Like Trump, Lutnick has taken exception to the trade deficit the US has with the EU.
“The European Union won’t take chicken from America. They won’t take lobsters from America. They hate our beef because our beef is beautiful and theirs is weak,” Lutnick said last week. “It’s unbelievable.”
Peter Navarro: the tariff evangelist
The fact that Šefčovič held several fruitless meetings and phone calls with Lutnick and Greer has prompted an awkward question: is he talking to the people calling the shots?
One of these people is Peter Navarro, a Trump loyalist who spent four months in prison after being held in contempt of Congress over the January 6 investigation.
With an economic doctorate from Harvard University, Navarro has been an ardent critic of free-trade deals and a fierce proponent of tariffs as a solution to trade deficits. He approaches the economy through the lens of national security and has written various books detailing his hawkish views on China. In 2019, it was revealed that Navarro had invented the character “Ron Vara” to quote himself in his book Death by China.
He now serves as Trump’s senior counsellor for trade and manufacturing.
In an op-ed for the Financial Times, Navarro castigated foreign nations for their “barrage of non-tariff weapons,” like value-added tax (VAT), currency manipulation and product standards, which he says “strangle” US exports. The 75-year-old singled out the EU for what he called “the use of lawfare” to target America’s Big Tech companies.
“The US will now match the substantially higher tariffs and crushing non-tariff barriers imposed on us by other nations,” Navarro wrote. “This is not a negotiation. For the US, it is a national emergency triggered by trade deficits caused by a rigged system.”
The White House: an intricate inner circle
There are many roads leading to Trump.
The president’s economic team also features Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the Treasury; Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, who is Seibert’s counterpart; and Stephen Miran, the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.
Bessent, a Yale-educated hedge fund manager, is seen as one of the most moderate characters in the White House and has urged countries to negotiate with Trump to bring down the level of the tariffs, which he says are now at “maximum”.
“President Trump is going to be personally involved in these negotiations, and he believes, as many of us do, that there’s been an unfair playing field, so the negotiations are going to be tough,” Bessent told Fox News.
Closer to the president is Susie Wiles, his media-shy chief of staff and gatekeeper; Stephen Miller, the deputy chief of staff and the architect of Trump’s hardline migration policy; and his family members, including Donald Trump Jr, Eric Trump and his wife Lara Trump.
And of course, there is Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and X, who has been given a mighty non-Cabinet position in the administration to slash the federal budget. Notably, Musk has not embraced tariffs with the same fervour as Trump’s inner circle. The mercurial billionaire has publicly lashed out against Navarro, calling him a “truly moron”, and endorsed the idea of a “zero-tariff zone situation” between the US and the EU.
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