Crypto Market Eyes Relief as US Senate Agrees on Budget Deal

The crypto market could soon see some much-needed relief after the US Senate reached an agreement on a three-part budget deal to end the government shutdown, Politico reports.

Pending legislation to fund the US government has more than enough support to pass the 60-vote threshold, Politico reported on Sunday, citing two people familiar with the matter.

It was Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s 15th attempt to win Democratic support for a House-approved bill, putting the record 40-day government shutdown within reach of being lifted.

An official vote is still needed to finalize the agreement.

Ongoing uncertainty over when the US government would reopen has been a key factor holding back Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market from mounting a rebound.

Bitcoin initially rallied to a new high of $126,080 six days into the government shutdown on Oct. 6, but has since fallen over 17% to $104,370, CoinGecko data shows. 

Bitcoin’s fall over the past month saw it drop by double-digit percentage points on Oct. 10 after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China sent shockwaves throughout the markets.

Bitcoin rallied 266% after last government shutdown lifted

The last US government shutdown occurred between late December 2018 and late January the following year in Trump’s first term.

After it ended on Jan. 25, 2019, Bitcoin rose over 265% from $3,550 to $13,000 over the next five months.

Prediction markets back shutdown to end this week

Bettors on prediction market Polymarket are backing that the government shutdown will be lifted on Thursday, with the market showing a 54% chance it will happen between Tuesday and Friday. 

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Those odds were just 27% a day ago.

Odds on competitor platform Kalshi are similar, estimating the government shutdown will end on Friday, 44 days into the shutdown.

It comes as Trump announced on Sunday that most Americans will receive a $2,000 dividend from tariff revenue.

Approximately 85% of adults will be eligible, excluding high-income earners, he said.

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